What will Elon post this week? (July 13 - July 19)

根據「What will Elon post this week? (July 13 - July 19)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Tesla 以壓倒性的 7,450% 獲勝機率主導市場；IPO 以 7,350% 位居第二，Never 以 6,650% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Tesla (7,450%)：Tesla 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,450¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• IPO (7,350%)：作為最可行的替代選項，IPO 保持著 7,350% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 7,350¢。
• Never (6,650%)：以 6,650% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Never 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Trump (5,650%)、Football (4,050%)，以及 President (4,050%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Neuralink 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count.

Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)

Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.

Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.

Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk

Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.