Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?

根據「Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Demon1 以壓倒性的 7,450% 獲勝機率主導市場；Primmie 以 5,950% 位居第二，something 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Demon1 (7,450%)：Demon1 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,450¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Primmie (5,950%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Primmie 保持著 5,950% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,950¢。
• something (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的機率位列第三，市場對 something 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 BuZz (5,000%)、Meteor (5,000%)，以及 Jemkin (5,000%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Cryocells 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player departs the listed team's active roster on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

For the purpose of this market, the listed player is considered to have "left" if they are officially removed from the listed team's active roster — including a transfer to another team, release, benching to inactive/reserve, loan to another team, retirement, or any other departure from the active lineup — as reflected on the team's Liquipedia page (https://liquipedia.net/valorant). The player being a stand-in for another team while still rostered does not by itself count.

The change must occur on or before the deadline and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the departure appears in the resolution source, it must remain in effect for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the departure itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted before 48 hours have elapsed, it will not count toward resolution.

A name change or alias referring to the same player on the same team does not count as leaving. Temporary absence for a single match (with the player remaining on the roster) does not count.

If the listed team disbands, or the listed player and the team part ways because the roster is dissolved, this will count as the player leaving and resolve "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.