Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

根據「Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Gavin Newsom 以壓倒性的 4,550% 獲勝機率主導市場；Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 以 4,550% 位居第二，Jon Ossoff 以 4,550% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Gavin Newsom (4,550%)：Gavin Newsom 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,550¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (4,550%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 保持著 4,550% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,550¢。
• Jon Ossoff (4,550%)：以 4,550% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Jon Ossoff 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Kamala Harris (4,550%)、Josh Shapiro (4,550%)，以及 Pete Buttigieg (4,550%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Jon Stewart 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.