Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

根據「Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，September 30 以壓倒性的 4,500% 獲勝機率主導市場；December 31 以 4,500% 位居第二，July 31 以 1,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• September 30 (4,500%)：September 30 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,500¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• December 31 (4,500%)：作為最可行的替代選項，December 31 保持著 4,500% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,500¢。
• July 31 (1,950%)：以 1,950% 的機率位列第三，市場對 July 31 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.