What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?

根據「What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Winchester Model 1894 以壓倒性的 4,250% 獲勝機率主導市場；Winchester Model 1873 以 4,250% 位居第二，Colt Peacemaker 以 4,250% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Winchester Model 1894 (4,250%)：Winchester Model 1894 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,250¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Winchester Model 1873 (4,250%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Winchester Model 1873 保持著 4,250% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,250¢。
• Colt Peacemaker (4,250%)：以 4,250% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Colt Peacemaker 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 M1 Garand (4,250%)、Colt M1911 (4,250%)，以及 Remington Model 700 (4,250%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 M1 Garand 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Idaho Official State Gun Question in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The named options will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more options are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the options. This market will resolve to the option that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).