What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
核心摘要
根據「What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Enola Holmes 3 以壓倒性的 8,850% 獲勝機率主導市場；Little Brother 以 900% 位居第二，Voicemails for Isabelle 以 190% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $57.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Enola Holmes 3 (8,850%)：Enola Holmes 3 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8,850¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $11.9K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Little Brother (900%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Little Brother 保持著 900% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 900¢。
- Voicemails for Isabelle (190%)：以 190% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Voicemails for Isabelle 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 GOAT (5%)、Maternal Instinct (5%)，以及 KPop Demon Hunters (5%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Spider-Man: Homecoming 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enola Holmes 3 | 8850.0% | $11.9K | 8850¢ | -8750¢ |
| 2 | Little Brother | 900.0% | $25.8K | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 3 | Voicemails for Isabelle | 190.0% | $16.0K | 190¢ | -90¢ |
| 4 | GOAT | 5.0% | $625 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 5 | Maternal Instinct | 5.0% | $591 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 6 | KPop Demon Hunters | 5.0% | $552 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 7 | Spider-Man: Homecoming | 5.0% | $564 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 8 | Gone Girl | 5.0% | $251 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 9 | The Choral | 5.0% | $214 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 10 | Talk to Me | 5.0% | $1.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁決規則
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).
This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie.
The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.
If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jul 3, 2026
- 08:23 AMBJbjprolo$0.13
Sold 1.18 Yes for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.11
- 08:15 AM0X0x90Bf2dbB1ab3b3C1bDd76D73848AFCb19b5799EB-1757018988089$14.24
Bought 16 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.89
- 08:13 AM0X0x90Bf2dbB1ab3b3C1bDd76D73848AFCb19b5799EB-1757018988089$38.28
Bought 44 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.87
- 07:49 AMTRtrinads-ai$9.30
Sold 66.42 Yes for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.14
- 07:48 AMVIVictor-Rainbow-Polymarket$58.25
Sold 72.81 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.8
- 07:48 AMBEBeubeu$40.00
Sold 50 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.8
- 07:48 AMAJAJSV$37.75
Bought 47.19 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.8
- 07:48 AMLIlihood91211$1.69
Sold 2.09 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.81
- 07:48 AMLIlihood91211$31.90
Sold 38.9 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.82
- 07:48 AMMAmacrosteaks$5.22
Sold 29 Yes for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.18
- 07:47 AMB8B839core$4.10
Sold 5 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.82
- 07:41 AM——$1.92
Bought 7.11111 Yes for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.27
常見問題
目前市場對「What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Enola Holmes 3 以 8,850% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Little Brother（900%），以及 Voicemails for Isabelle（190%）。該市場總成交量已達 $57.7K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。