What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (August 7)

根據「What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (August 7)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times 以壓倒性的 9,500% 獲勝機率主導市場；Software 以 9,350% 位居第二，IPO 以 9,100% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times (9,500%)：Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,500¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $31 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Software (9,350%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Software 保持著 9,350% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,350¢。
• IPO (9,100%)：以 9,100% 的機率位列第三，市場對 IPO 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Anthropic 5+ times (8,950%)、AI 50+ times (8,600%)，以及 SpaceX 3+ times (7,900%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Red 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://allin.com/episodes)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the next episode of the All-In Podcast added to the official YouTube playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLn5MTSAqaf8peDZQ57QkJBzewJU1aUokl. Specials or other videos posted on the YouTube channel but not included on the All-In Podcast playlist will not be considered.

If no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf