US Trade Deficit - June 2026

根據「US Trade Deficit - June 2026」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，90-100B 以壓倒性的 4,100% 獲勝機率主導市場；70-80B 以 3,850% 位居第二，50-60B 以 1,300% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $382，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 90-100B (4,100%)：90-100B 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,100¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $18 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 70-80B (3,850%)：作為最可行的替代選項，70-80B 保持著 3,850% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,850¢。
• 50-60B (1,300%)：以 1,300% 的機率位列第三，市場對 50-60B 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 60-70B (1,300%)、80-90B (950%)，以及 <50B (550%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 100B+ 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services

Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.

If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.