Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

根據「Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 43% 獲勝機率主導市場；October 31 以 23% 位居第二，August 31 以 11.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $5.1M，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31 (43%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 43¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $1.9M 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• October 31 (23%)：作為最可行的替代選項，October 31 保持著 23% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 23¢。
• August 31 (11.5%)：以 11.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 August 31 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 22.5%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 June 30 (0.1%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 June 30 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 October 31 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 23% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 30.2%——形成可觀的 +7.2% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 August 31（EV 差：+3.3%）以及 June 30（EV 差：+1%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。