Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in August

根據「Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in August」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，94 to 103 km/h 以壓倒性的 4,950% 獲勝機率主導市場；104 km/h or above 以 4,950% 位居第二，93 km/h or below 以 4,750% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 94 to 103 km/h (4,950%)：94 to 103 km/h 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,950¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 104 km/h or above (4,950%)：作為最可行的替代選項，104 km/h or above 保持著 4,950% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,950¢。
• 93 km/h or below (4,750%)：以 4,750% 的機率位列第三，市場對 93 km/h or below 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between August 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide.

The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.

The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=8&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.

If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.