Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?

根據「Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，July 31 以壓倒性的 600% 獲勝機率主導市場；July 24 以 400% 位居第二，July 17 以 350% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $20，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• July 31 (600%)：July 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 600¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $20 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• July 24 (400%)：作為最可行的替代選項，July 24 保持著 400% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 400¢。
• July 17 (350%)：以 350% 的機率位列第三，市場對 July 17 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mykhailo Fedorov is reinstated as Ukraine’s Minister of Defense by the listed date at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Fedorov will be considered reinstated if he is either i) officially assigned to temporarily perform the minister’s duties or ii) formally nominated for appointment by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Verkhovna Rada.

A temporary reinstatement will be considered to have occurred when the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine officially and definitively announces that Mykhailo Fedorov has been assigned to temporarily perform the duties of the Minister of Defense. A formal nomination will be considered to have occurred upon the submission of Mykhailo Fedorov’s nomination to the Verkhovna Rada.

A public statement, media report, expression of intent, or informal announcement will not qualify, unless it constitutes an official and definitive announcement by the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers assigning Fedorov to perform the minister’s duties. Fedorov does not need to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada, take the oath of office, or assume the position on a permanent basis to qualify.

Whether any individual other than Mykhailo Fedorov is nominated, temporarily assigned, or appointed Minister of Defense, within the market timeframe, will not be considered. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information and records from the President of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, and the Verkhovna Rada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.