MLB: Player to be Traded by 2026 Trade Deadline?
核心摘要
根據「MLB: Player to be Traded by 2026 Trade Deadline?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Tarik Skubal 以壓倒性的 7,500% 獲勝機率主導市場；Mason Miller 以 6,600% 位居第二，Reid Detmers 以 5,450% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Tarik Skubal (7,500%)：Tarik Skubal 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,500¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Mason Miller (6,600%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Mason Miller 保持著 6,600% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 6,600¢。
- Reid Detmers (5,450%)：以 5,450% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Reid Detmers 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 Ryan Jeffers (5,350%)、Freddy Peralta (5,300%)，以及 Luis Arraez (5,200%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 CJ Abrams 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 7500.0% | — | 7500¢ | -7400¢ |
| 2 | Mason Miller | 6600.0% | — | 6600¢ | -6500¢ |
| 3 | Reid Detmers | 5450.0% | — | 5450¢ | -5350¢ |
| 4 | Ryan Jeffers | 5350.0% | — | 5350¢ | -5250¢ |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 5300.0% | — | 5300¢ | -5200¢ |
| 6 | Luis Arraez | 5200.0% | — | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 7 | CJ Abrams | 5150.0% | — | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 8 | Zach Neto | 5150.0% | — | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 9 | Mike Trout | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 10 | Francisco Lindor | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 11 | Byron Buxton | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 12 | Joe Ryan | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 13 | Jung Hoo Lee | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 14 | Casey Mize | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 15 | Josh Hader | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 16 | José Soriano | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 17 | Robbie Ray | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 18 | Jarren Duran | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 19 | Aroldis Chapman | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 20 | Jeremy Pena | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 21 | Shea Langeliers | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 22 | Juan Soto | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 23 | Kevin Gausman | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Major League Baseball player is traded by August 3, 2026, 9:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the listed player is released, retires, not on the active roster for any MLB team or is not under contract with any MLB team by August 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Aug 2, 2026
- 06:51 PMGCgcjames$57.66
Sold 62 No for Will Shea Langeliers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.93
- 06:41 PMROrogermal$0.38
Sold 19.2 Yes for Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.02
- 06:41 PMROrogermal$3.74
Sold 22 Yes for Will Mason Miller be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.17
- 06:41 PMROrogermal$4.37
Sold 23 No for Will Casey Mize be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.19
- 05:51 PMIMimumoccupancy$420.41
Bought 424.66 Yes for Will Freddy Peralta be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.99
- 05:50 PMIMimumoccupancy$59.40
Bought 60 Yes for Will Freddy Peralta be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.99
- 05:50 PMIMimumoccupancy$105.83
Bought 107.99 Yes for Will Freddy Peralta be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.98
- 05:50 PMATatanvardo$16.92
Sold 19.23 No for Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.88
- 04:28 PMJAjackylove$43.50
Bought 50 No for Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.87
- 03:51 PMGAgavinfunda$57.66
Sold 62 No for Will Shea Langeliers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.93
- 03:26 PMRUrubl$17.67
Sold 19 No for Will Shea Langeliers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.93
- 02:50 PMJAjackylove$82.00
Bought 100 No for Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.82
常見問題
目前市場對「MLB: Player to be Traded by 2026 Trade Deadline?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Tarik Skubal 以 7,500% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Mason Miller（6,600%），以及 Reid Detmers（5,450%）。該市場總成交量已達 —，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。