Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

根據「Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Republican 12%+ 以壓倒性的 4,400% 獲勝機率主導市場；Democrat 12%+ 以 4,250% 位居第二，Republican 9-12% 以 1,850% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Republican 12%+ (4,400%)：Republican 12%+ 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,400¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Democrat 12%+ (4,250%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Democrat 12%+ 保持著 4,250% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,250¢。
• Republican 9-12% (1,850%)：以 1,850% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Republican 9-12% 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Republican 6-9% (1,850%)、Republican 3-6% (1,850%)，以及 Republican 0-3% (1,850%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Democrat 0-3% 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The 2026 first round of the Maine Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Maine Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.