LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

$1M Vol
2026年8月9日
Active
機率趨勢
Natus Vincere 64.5%
SK Gaming 35.5%

核心摘要

根據「LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Game 2 Winner 以壓倒性的 9,995% 獲勝機率主導市場;O/U 2.5 Games 以 9,995% 位居第二,Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? 以 9,995% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1M,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Game 2 Winner (9,995%):Game 2 Winner 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,995¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $461.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • O/U 2.5 Games (9,995%):作為最可行的替代選項,O/U 2.5 Games 保持著 9,995% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,995¢。
  • Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? (9,995%):以 9,995% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? (9,995%)、Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? (9,995%),以及 Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor (9,000%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Odd/Even Total Kills 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Game 2 Winner9995.0%$461.3K9995¢-9895¢
2O/U 2.5 Games9995.0%$5.3K9995¢-9895¢
3Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?9995.0%$2.4K9995¢-9895¢
4Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?9995.0%$1.5K9995¢-9895¢
5Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?9995.0%$699995¢-9895¢
6Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor9000.0%9000¢-8900¢
7Odd/Even Total Kills9000.0%9000¢-8900¢
8Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
9Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
10Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
11Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
12Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
13Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
14Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
15Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
16Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
17Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
18Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
19Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
20Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
21Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
22Odd/Even Total Kills4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
23Match Winner4150.0%$264.0K4150¢-4050¢
24Both Teams Slay a Dragon1000.0%1000¢-900¢
25Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors1000.0%1000¢-900¢
26Any Player Quadra Kill1000.0%1000¢-900¢
27Any Player Penta Kill1000.0%1000¢-900¢
28Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?1000.0%1000¢-900¢
29Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?275.0%$3.4K275¢-175¢
30Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?55.0%55¢45¢
31First Blood in Game 2?50.0%$7250¢50¢
32Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50.0%$67150¢50¢
33Game 1 Winner5.0%$355.2K95¢
34Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5)5.0%$43.8K95¢
35First Blood in Game 1?5.0%$86895¢
36Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?5.0%$595¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the LoL match between SK Gaming and Natus Vincere in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 8 at 11:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to "SK Gaming" if SK Gaming win the match against Natus Vincere.

This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against SK Gaming.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Aug 8, 2026

  • 08:19 AM
    NUNulixuexi
    $3.15

    Bought 5 SK Gaming for Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5) at 0.63

  • 08:13 AM
    KOKosmener
    $30.00

    Bought 78.947367 Natus Vincere for Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5) at 0.38

  • 08:02 AM
    $51.48

    Bought 80.4375 Natus Vincere for LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season at 0.64

  • 08:01 AM
    DRDriftCapital
    $2.85

    Bought 5 Over for Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? at 0.57

  • 08:00 AM
    DEdentleightadman
    $1.00

    Bought 1.754383 Over for Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? at 0.57

  • 07:50 AM
    DRDriftCapital
    $1.85

    Bought 3.24 Over for Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? at 0.57

  • 07:49 AM
    DEdentleightadman
    $1.00

    Bought 1.754383 Over for Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? at 0.57

  • 07:48 AM
    0X0x8d10b39465225d7a881b56b4Af8354997f0C940A-1767024582634
    $3.62

    Bought 8.227271 Under for Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? at 0.44

  • 07:48 AM
    $43.50

    Bought 75 Over for Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? at 0.58

  • 07:39 AM
    PAPacoPorros
    $5.00

    Bought 7.8125 Natus Vincere for LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season at 0.64

  • 07:31 AM
    QOqomroca
    $47.82

    Bought 77.125 Over for Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? at 0.62

  • 07:31 AM
    AMam100
    $119.34

    Bought 271.23 Under for Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? at 0.44

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

BR1
BrotherObama
Event PnL
+$1.34
Volume
$19,181.68
Positions
SK Gaming
SS2
sssow
Event PnL
+$40.09
Volume
$8,018.67
Positions
Natus Vincere
LA3
Lakersfan111
Event PnL
+$45.12
Volume
$7,797.03
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Natus VincereSK GamingSK Gaming
ER4
erbao
Event PnL
-$37.13
Volume
$7,425.67
Positions
Natus Vincere
BA5
0xBadB…c31a
Event PnL
-$20.00
Volume
$4,000.00
Positions
Natus VincereNatus Vincere
LM6
lmtscapt
Event PnL
+$18.25
Volume
$3,926.47
Positions
Natus VincereUnderSK Gaming+1
FO7
forget4
Event PnL
+$17.20
Volume
$3,439.93
Positions
SK Gaming
ZZ8
Zzzz87
Event PnL
+$4.20
Volume
$3,279.00
Positions
Natus Vincere

常見問題

目前市場對「LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Game 2 Winner 以 9,995% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 O/U 2.5 Games(9,995%),以及 Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?(9,995%)。該市場總成交量已達 $1M,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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