LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group

$75.2K Vol
2026年8月18日
Active
機率趨勢
HANJIN BRION Challengers 68.0%
Gen.G Global Academy 32.0%

核心摘要

根據「LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors 以壓倒性的 52% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $75.2K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors (52%):Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 52¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $52 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52.0%$5252¢48¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the LoL match between Gen.G Global Academy and HANJIN BRION Challengers in the LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group, initially scheduled for August 18, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Gen.G Global Academy" if Gen.G Global Academy win the match against HANJIN BRION Challengers.

This market will resolve to "HANJIN BRION Challengers" if HANJIN BRION Challengers win the match against Gen.G Global Academy.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 18, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

AI 估值分析:發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場,而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布,我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比,可揭示出重大背離——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果,而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算,以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離:

  • 最被高估的結果:Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors 當前交易價為 52%,但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 50.7%,形成 -1.3% 的較大負 EV 差,表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52.0%50.7%-1.3%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Aug 18, 2026

  • 08:35 AM
    MImingyuexing
    $19.53

    Bought 31 HANJIN BRION Challengers for LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner at 0.63

  • 08:29 AM
    THThomasfg
    $17.86

    Bought 47 Gen.G Global Academy for LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner at 0.38

  • 08:29 AM
    CLClementfg
    $15.75

    Bought 25 HANJIN BRION Challengers for LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner at 0.63

  • 08:28 AM
    DEdeuldeuldeul
    $1.00

    Bought 2.32558 HANJIN BRION Challengers for Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) at 0.43

  • 08:28 AM
    MEMerryzdfb
    $14.49

    Bought 23 HANJIN BRION Challengers for LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner at 0.63

  • 08:27 AM
    $1.30

    Bought 2.063491 HANJIN BRION Challengers for LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner at 0.63

  • 08:23 AM
    THTheWitcherNL
    $8.00

    Bought 18.60465 HANJIN BRION Challengers for Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) at 0.43

  • 08:19 AM
    $49.93

    Bought 86.086204 Gen.G Global Academy for Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) at 0.58

  • 08:17 AM
    TWtw0hnepixeL
    $1.95

    Bought 3.362066 Gen.G Global Academy for Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) at 0.58

  • 08:10 AM
    ARarahbo
    $19.57

    Bought 31.07 HANJIN BRION Challengers for LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner at 0.63

  • 08:05 AM
    BUButterTheDog
    $73.94

    Bought 105.63 HANJIN BRION Challengers for LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group at 0.7

  • 08:02 AM
    XExeriu
    $87.96

    Bought 125.65714 HANJIN BRION Challengers for LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group at 0.7

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

TA1
TAIWANNUMBERONE
Event PnL
-$148.40
Volume
$30,105.58
Positions
HANJIN BRION ChallengersHANJIN BRION Challengers
BB2
BBQChickenisthebesttt
Event PnL
+$107.57
Volume
$21,504.18
Positions
Gen.G Global Academy
TH3
thecomplicatedguy
Event PnL
+$16.38
Volume
$11,999.97
Positions
Gen.G Global Academy
YA4
YankeesFan
Event PnL
-$53.02
Volume
$10,605.26
Positions
HANJIN BRION ChallengersHANJIN BRION Challengers
AM5
am100
Event PnL
+$29.76
Volume
$10,358.17
Positions
Gen.G Global AcademyGen.G Global Academy
GO6
Gooooooollllllllll
Event PnL
+$34.31
Volume
$7,138.62
Positions
HANJIN BRION ChallengersHANJIN BRION Challengers
697
0x6918…0027
Event PnL
-$60.51
Volume
$6,739.98
Positions
Gen.G Global AcademyGen.G Global AcademyGen.G Global Academy
078
0x076d…8d4c
Event PnL
-$27.71
Volume
$5,272.94
Positions
Gen.G Global AcademyHANJIN BRION Challengers

常見問題

目前市場對「LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors 以 52% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $75.2K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同?

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算,剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差,提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度?

是的——資料顯示市場對 Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 52%,但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 50.7%,形成 -1.3% 的負 EV 差,表明該合約被高估。

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