Lai Ching-te impeached by...?

$1.4M Vol
2026年12月31日
Active
機率趨勢
December 31 46.5%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? 0.1%

核心摘要

根據「Lai Ching-te impeached by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No 以壓倒性的 5,350% 獲勝機率主導市場；Yes 以 4,650% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $1.4M，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • No (5,350%)：No 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,350¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Yes (4,650%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Yes 保持著 4,650% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,650¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1No5350.0%—5350¢-5250¢
2Yes4650.0%—4650¢-4550¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jun 28, 2026

  • 07:00 PM
    ——
    $1.12

    Sold 1.12 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 06:35 PM
    ——
    $1.04

    Sold 1.04 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 05:54 PM
    ——
    $0.26

    Sold 0.26 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:53 PM
    JOJourneyJolt
    $144.46

    Bought 144.46 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:53 PM
    QUQuestQuip3s
    $269.54

    Bought 269.54 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:53 PM
    HEHeroHiccup3xe
    $202.75

    Bought 202.75 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:52 PM
    FAFableFizzle
    $127.33

    Bought 127.33 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:52 PM
    LELegendLilt
    $297.25

    Bought 297.25 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:51 PM
    ——
    $1.37

    Bought 1.371 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 03:03 PM
    GRGregorian
    $38.59

    Bought 38.59 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 03:03 PM
    ——
    $1.56

    Sold 1.56 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 02:29 PM
    ——
    $0.57

    Sold 0.57 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

SI1
simplystupid188
Event PnL
-$35.15
Volume
$1,384.53
Positions
Yes
UL2
ultralisk
Event PnL
-$1.95
Volume
$1,094.72
Positions
Yes
LA3
labistiiia
Event PnL
-$0.49
Volume
$985.79
Positions
Yes
RC4
0xrc
Event PnL
+$10.20
Volume
$962.61
Positions
No
PU5
purebaby
Event PnL
-$10.85
Volume
$799.98
Positions
Yes
MU6
Mustwiner
Event PnL
-$10.49
Volume
$723.33
Positions
Yes
MO7
monjon678
Event PnL
+$23.53
Volume
$719.23
Positions
No
RO8
Rogue54
Event PnL
+$0.31
Volume
$620.62
Positions
No

常見問題

目前市場對「Lai Ching-te impeached by...?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，No 以 5,350% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Yes（4,650%）。該市場總成交量已達 $1.4M，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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