JOLTS Job Openings — July 2026

根據「JOLTS Job Openings — July 2026」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，<7.1M 以壓倒性的 2,550% 獲勝機率主導市場；7.1M-7.2M 以 2,550% 位居第二，7.2M-7.3M 以 2,550% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• <7.1M (2,550%)：<7.1M 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 2,550¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 7.1M-7.2M (2,550%)：作為最可行的替代選項，7.1M-7.2M 保持著 2,550% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 2,550¢。
• 7.2M-7.3M (2,550%)：以 2,550% 的機率位列第三，市場對 7.2M-7.3M 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 7.3M-7.4M (2,550%)、7.4M-7.5M (2,550%)，以及 7.5M-7.6M (2,550%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 7.6M-7.7M 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings in the United States in July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings for the total nonfarm sector in July 2026, as reported in the monthly JOLTS report published by the BLS.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly JOLTS report, which reports job openings in thousands of openings. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Rounding employed in the headline figure will not impact settlement, where a more precise figure is reported.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next JOLTS report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.