Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

根據「Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，August 31 以壓倒性的 1,050% 獲勝機率主導市場；July 31 以 750% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $1.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• August 31 (1,050%)：August 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 1,050¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $842 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• July 31 (750%)：作為最可行的替代選項，July 31 保持著 750% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 750¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a diplomatic meeting between official representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both specified countries or political entities. who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities, deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation between the countries.

Both direct and indirect meetings will qualify. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of the specified entities directly interact with each other in person. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city, with the intermediary conveying diplomatic communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.

The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.

Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the specified entities is separately held alongside such a convening.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.