How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

根據「How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，0 以壓倒性的 4,400% 獲勝機率主導市場；1 以 3,100% 位居第二，2 以 1,650% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.1K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 0 (4,400%)：0 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,400¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $459 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 1 (3,100%)：作為最可行的替代選項，1 保持著 3,100% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,100¢。
• 2 (1,650%)：以 1,650% 的機率位列第三，市場對 2 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 3 (750%)、4 (365%)，以及 5 (265%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 >5 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.