How long will Trump’s Las Vegas remarks be?

根據「How long will Trump’s Las Vegas remarks be?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，<20 minutes 以壓倒性的 4,300% 獲勝機率主導市場；20-30 minutes 以 4,300% 位居第二，30-40 minutes 以 4,300% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• <20 minutes (4,300%)：<20 minutes 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,300¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 20-30 minutes (4,300%)：作為最可行的替代選項，20-30 minutes 保持著 4,300% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,300¢。
• 30-40 minutes (4,300%)：以 4,300% 的機率位列第三，市場對 30-40 minutes 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 40-50 minutes (4,300%)、50-60 minutes (4,300%)，以及 60-70 minutes (4,300%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 70-80 minutes 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks in Las Vegas on August 5, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET (https://www.forth.news/whpool/CdeLprcbvz7bozG74CZuy).

This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Las Vegas remarks.

The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Las Vegas remarks until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. If Trump allows another individual to speak before he finishes his own speech, that time will count towards the duration of his speech.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the start of Trump’s Las Vegas remarks is cancelled or delayed beyond August 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.