Fed rate hike by...?
核心摘要
根據「Fed rate hike by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，October Meeting 以壓倒性的 41.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；September Meeting 以 27.5% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $2.2M，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- October Meeting (41.5%)：October Meeting 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 42¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $447.9K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- September Meeting (27.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，September Meeting 保持著 27.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 28¢。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October Meeting | 41.5% | $447.9K | 42¢ | 59¢ |
| 2 | September Meeting | 27.5% | $827.6K | 28¢ | 73¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 September Meeting 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 27.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 43.9%——形成可觀的 +16.4% EV 差。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| October Meeting | 41.5% | 45.8% | +4.3% |
| September MeetingBest EV | 27.5% | 43.9% | +16.4% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Aug 14, 2026
- 06:55 AMTOtony778$51.10
Bought 70 No for Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? at 0.73
- 06:19 AMPLplanktonxdsuck$1.35
Sold 4.99 Yes for Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? at 0.27
- 05:30 AM——$3.60
Bought 5 No for Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? at 0.72
- 05:19 AM——$9.36
Bought 13 No for Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? at 0.72
- 05:01 AM-.-....-$584.00
Bought 800 No for Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? at 0.73
- 04:50 AMWOwoahnow$159.99
Sold 399.98 Yes for Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? at 0.4
- 04:29 AMBOborisberezovsky$306.69
Sold 766.72 Yes for Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? at 0.4
- 04:23 AMDAdarknight11$55.60
Bought 95.862067 No for Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? at 0.58
- 02:26 AMOXOx648bAD7080caA1a9931B2774B20e87ECa75900ba$0.16
Sold 0.58 Yes for Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? at 0.27
- 02:26 AM0X0xA3De21C8e8248a3bcCFEc6b68E33d4504802111A-1783087526101$15.00
Bought 51.724136 Yes for Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? at 0.29
- 02:26 AMOXOx648bAD7080caA1a9931B2774B20e87ECa75900ba$0.27
Sold 1 Yes for Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? at 0.27
- 02:26 AM0X0xA3De21C8e8248a3bcCFEc6b68E33d4504802111A-1783087526101$15.00
Bought 51.724136 Yes for Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? at 0.29
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Fed rate hike by...?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，October Meeting 以 41.5% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 September Meeting（27.5%）。該市場總成交量已達 $2.2M，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一輪測算顯示，September Meeting 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 27.5%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 43.9%——形成 +16.4% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。