Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?

$66.9K Vol
2026年8月20日
Active
機率趨勢
Up 97.3%
Down 2.7%

核心摘要

根據「Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Up 以壓倒性的 9,685% 獲勝機率主導市場；Down 以 315% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $66.9K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Up (9,685%)：Up 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,685¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Down (315%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Down 保持著 315% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 315¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Up9685.0%—9685¢-9585¢
2Down315.0%—315¢-215¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle.

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Aug 19, 2026

  • 09:24 PM
    GEGennaro6z
    $39.82

    Sold 41.92 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.95

  • 09:19 PM
    ANAntonio-1729
    $4.95

    Bought 5.103066 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.97

  • 09:19 PM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $17.78

    Bought 355.571111 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.05

  • 09:17 PM
    WYWYFSK
    $0.83

    Bought 16.5 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.05

  • 09:15 PM
    88888ll
    $9.98

    Bought 10.288035 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.97

  • 09:11 PM
    WYWYFSK
    $0.75

    Bought 15 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.05

  • 09:08 PM
    COComTruise
    $19.60

    Bought 20 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.98

  • 09:04 PM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $9.34

    Sold 311.33 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.03

  • 09:04 PM
    T0t00000000
    $4.00

    Bought 99.91 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.04

  • 09:04 PM
    0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452
    $896.64

    Bought 934 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.96

  • 08:56 PM
    NEneskipa
    $13.00

    Bought 13.54165 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.96

  • 08:55 PM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $280.37

    Bought 4672.89 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.06

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

GO1
gobblewobble
Event PnL
-$1.53
Volume
$10,166.56
Positions
Up
KI2
kingofcoinflips
Event PnL
-$390.53
Volume
$5,863.26
Positions
Down
FD3
0xfdc0…5e6a
Event PnL
-$445.90
Volume
$2,547.99
Positions
Down
T04
t00000000
Event PnL
+$10.50
Volume
$1,400.01
Positions
Down
CO5
ComTruise
Event PnL
+$4.57
Volume
$1,240.58
Positions
Down
IH6
IH2P
Event PnL
-$50.71
Volume
$1,209.00
Positions
Up
CO7
coinfilippe
Event PnL
-$106.22
Volume
$734.17
Positions
Up
068
0x06dc…0452
Event PnL
+$120.00
Volume
$416.57
Positions
Down

常見問題

目前市場對「Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Up 以 9,685% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Down（315%）。該市場總成交量已達 $66.9K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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