Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?

$147.5K Vol
2026年8月19日
Active
機率趨勢
Down 64.5%
Up 35.5%

核心摘要

根據「Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Down 以壓倒性的 6,450% 獲勝機率主導市場；Up 以 3,550% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $147.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Down (6,450%)：Down 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 6,450¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Up (3,550%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Up 保持著 3,550% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,550¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Down6450.0%—6450¢-6350¢
2Up3550.0%—3550¢-3450¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle.

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Aug 18, 2026

  • 09:03 AM
    RAravenzone55
    $2.55

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:46 AM
    STsteel.j
    $1.55

    Bought 3.039214 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:31 AM
    GIgigaqueen1980william
    $2.55

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:30 AM
    DRdragon576
    $1.50

    Bought 3 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 08:23 AM
    PUpulsevoidcore
    $1.55

    Bought 3.039214 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:22 AM
    DAdatalord21hunt
    $2.55

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:19 AM
    DAdark.crossironai699
    $1.50

    Bought 3 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 07:53 AM
    DAdarksys2001
    $2.55

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 07:49 AM
    LIlightcorekimberlyfox
    $1.50

    Bought 3 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 07:43 AM
    DRdragonaivoidpilot269
    $2.50

    Bought 5 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 07:31 AM
    COcorepro27
    $2.50

    Bought 5 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 06:59 AM
    NOnovaaitigerlt
    $2.50

    Bought 5 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

D01
0xd04b…7276
Event PnL
-$2,256.55
Volume
$19,999.94
Positions
Up
KI2
kingofcoinflips
Event PnL
-$56.92
Volume
$19,190.02
Positions
Down
ZZ3
Zzzz87
Event PnL
-$221.30
Volume
$5,332.00
Positions
Up
064
0x06dc…0452
Event PnL
+$682.50
Volume
$5,173.67
Positions
Down
FD5
0xfdc0…5e6a
Event PnL
+$360.44
Volume
$5,095.95
Positions
Down
T06
t00000000
Event PnL
-$146.24
Volume
$3,990.00
Positions
Up
CO7
coinfilippe
Event PnL
+$1.86
Volume
$2,795.31
Positions
Down
GO8
Goldismoney
Event PnL
-$102.28
Volume
$1,759.03
Positions
Up

常見問題

目前市場對「Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Down 以 6,450% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Up（3,550%）。該市場總成交量已達 $147.5K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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