Bitcoin above ___ on August 27?
核心摘要
根據「Bitcoin above ___ on August 27?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，62,000 以壓倒性的 9,900% 獲勝機率主導市場；64,000 以 9,880% 位居第二，66,000 以 9,790% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $45.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- 62,000 (9,900%)：62,000 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,900¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $447 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- 64,000 (9,880%)：作為最可行的替代選項，64,000 保持著 9,880% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,880¢。
- 66,000 (9,790%)：以 9,790% 的機率位列第三，市場對 66,000 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 68,000 (9,700%)、70,000 (9,450%)，以及 72,000 (8,850%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 74,000 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62,000 | 9900.0% | $447 | 9900¢ | -9800¢ |
| 2 | 64,000 | 9880.0% | $10 | 9880¢ | -9780¢ |
| 3 | 66,000 | 9790.0% | $2.0K | 9790¢ | -9690¢ |
| 4 | 68,000 | 9700.0% | $52 | 9700¢ | -9600¢ |
| 5 | 70,000 | 9450.0% | $815 | 9450¢ | -9350¢ |
| 6 | 72,000 | 8850.0% | $646 | 8850¢ | -8750¢ |
| 7 | 74,000 | 7650.0% | $382 | 7650¢ | -7550¢ |
| 8 | 76,000 | 6000.0% | $1.3K | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 9 | 78,000 | 4295.0% | $2.1K | 4295¢ | -4195¢ |
| 10 | 80,000 | 2750.0% | $1.2K | 2750¢ | -2650¢ |
| 11 | 82,000 | 1735.0% | $37.7K | 1735¢ | -1635¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Aug 21, 2026
- 09:16 AMPCPCrylikebaby$33.33
Bought 42.73 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AM0X0x45DBCC1a4F9a9b80d21BcBF1D576a055fa1451c$1,000.00
Bought 3846.153845 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.26
- 09:16 AM0X0xA8fB2E2a61059B5d0D4Ab220526CB1b5179Ef73d-1783087505408$14.49
Bought 18.575095 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AMPCPCrylikebaby$33.39
Bought 42.81 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AM0X0xA8fB2E2a61059B5d0D4Ab220526CB1b5179Ef73d-1783087505408$14.59
Bought 18.703461 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AM0X0x45DBCC1a4F9a9b80d21BcBF1D576a055fa1451c$1,015.68
Bought 3906.460897 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.26
- 09:16 AMPCPCrylikebaby$33.98
Bought 43.57 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AM0X0x45DBCC1a4F9a9b80d21BcBF1D576a055fa1451c$980.39
Bought 3921.568626 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.25
- 09:16 AM0X0xA8fB2E2a61059B5d0D4Ab220526CB1b5179Ef73d-1783087505408$14.86
Bought 19.050063 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:12 AMSHshellyab$4.93
Bought 13.698629 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27? at 0.36
- 09:11 AMPCPCrylikebaby$32.02
Bought 41.05 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:11 AM0X0xA8fB2E2a61059B5d0D4Ab220526CB1b5179Ef73d-1783087505408$13.77
Bought 17.653845 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Bitcoin above ___ on August 27?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，62,000 以 9,900% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 64,000（9,880%），以及 66,000（9,790%）。該市場總成交量已達 $45.7K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。