Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of August 22

根據「Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of August 22」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Been By Now - Morgan Wallen 以壓倒性的 4,400% 獲勝機率主導市場；hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande 以 4,350% 位居第二，I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift 以 4,300% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $43，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Been By Now - Morgan Wallen (4,400%)：Been By Now - Morgan Wallen 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,400¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande (4,350%)：作為最可行的替代選項，hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande 保持著 4,350% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,350¢。
• I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift (4,300%)：以 4,300% 的機率位列第三，市場對 I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Boston - Stella Lefty (4,250%)、Petal - Ariana Grande (4,050%)，以及 Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo (4,000%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Be Her - Ella Langley 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.

This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 22, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.