Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?

根據「Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，35-39 以壓倒性的 3,700% 獲勝機率主導市場；30-34 以 3,650% 位居第二，40+ 以 3,600% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $39，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 35-39 (3,700%)：35-39 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 3,700¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 30-34 (3,650%)：作為最可行的替代選項，30-34 保持著 3,650% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,650¢。
• 40+ (3,600%)：以 3,600% 的機率位列第三，市場對 40+ 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 25-29 (3,300%)、20-24 (3,100%)，以及 <20 (750%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 25-29 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Linke party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.

This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.

If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).