Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?

根據「Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Up 以壓倒性的 8,400% 獲勝機率主導市場；Down 以 1,600% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Up (8,400%)：Up 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8,400¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Down (1,600%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Down 保持著 1,600% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 1,600¢。

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.

If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.

The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.

If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).