Bank of Canada Decision in September?

根據「Bank of Canada Decision in September?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No Change 以壓倒性的 5,700% 獲勝機率主導市場；50+ bps increase 以 3,200% 位居第二，25 bps increase 以 2,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $110，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• No Change (5,700%)：No Change 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,700¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $12 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 50+ bps increase (3,200%)：作為最可行的替代選項，50+ bps increase 保持著 3,200% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,200¢。
• 25 bps increase (2,950%)：以 2,950% 的機率位列第三，市場對 25 bps increase 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 25 bps decrease (2,950%)，以及 50+ bps decrease (2,800%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 25 bps decrease 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.