August Inflation China - Annual

根據「August Inflation China - Annual」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，0.7% - 0.8% 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；0.5% - 0.6% 以 3,050% 位居第二，0.3% - 0.4% 以 1,605% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.1K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 0.7% - 0.8% (5,000%)：0.7% - 0.8% 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $628 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 0.5% - 0.6% (3,050%)：作為最可行的替代選項，0.5% - 0.6% 保持著 3,050% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,050¢。
• 0.3% - 0.4% (1,605%)：以 1,605% 的機率位列第三，市場對 0.3% - 0.4% 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 ≤0.2% (1,150%)，以及 0.9%+ (270%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 ≤0.2% 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/