US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz

$67K Vol
2026年9月6日
Active
機率趨勢
Carlos Alcaraz 79.5%
Roman Safiullin 20.5%

核心摘要

根據「US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 以壓倒性的 6,550% 獲勝機率主導市場;US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 以 6,500% 位居第二,US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5 以 6,050% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $67K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 (6,550%):US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 6,550¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 (6,500%):作為最可行的替代選項,US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 保持著 6,500% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 6,500¢。
  • US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5 (6,050%):以 6,050% 的機率位列第三,市場對 US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5 (5,650%)、US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 36.5 (5,100%),以及 Completed Match (5,000%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 8.5 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.56550.0%6550¢-6450¢
2US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.56500.0%$1076500¢-6400¢
3US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.56050.0%$1716050¢-5950¢
4US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.55650.0%5650¢-5550¢
5US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 36.55100.0%$255100¢-5000¢
6Completed Match5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
7US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 8.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
8US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 9.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
9US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 10.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
10US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 Winner5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
11US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 8.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
12US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 9.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
13US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 10.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
14US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 8.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
15US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 9.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
16US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 10.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
17US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 38.54550.0%4550¢-4450¢
18US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-6.54250.0%$23.8K4250¢-4150¢
19US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 40.54250.0%4250¢-4150¢
20US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-2.53750.0%$3.1K3750¢-3650¢
21US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 10.53100.0%3100¢-3000¢
22US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 Winner3000.0%$3203000¢-2900¢
23US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 Winner3000.0%3000¢-2900¢
24US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 Winner2950.0%2950¢-2850¢
25US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 4.52500.0%2500¢-2400¢
26US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz2050.0%$39.6K2050¢-1950¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the tennis match between Roman Safiullin and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Roman Safiullin' if Roman Safiullin advances against Carlos Alcaraz.

This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Roman Safiullin.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Aug 30, 2026

  • 09:10 PM
    FAfastball67
    $3,344.11

    Bought 7777 Alcaraz for Game Spread: Alcaraz (-6.5) vs Safiullin (+6.5) at 0.43

  • 09:09 PM
    FAfastball67
    $3,344.11

    Bought 7777 Alcaraz for Game Spread: Alcaraz (-6.5) vs Safiullin (+6.5) at 0.43

  • 09:04 PM
    GUguilleplfy
    $2.00

    Bought 2.469131 Carlos Alcaraz for US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz at 0.81

  • 09:04 PM
    XRxRaptor99214X
    $1.53

    Bought 1.888884 Carlos Alcaraz for US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz at 0.81

  • 09:00 PM
    58588d9
    $1.03

    Bought 5.15 Roman Safiullin for US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz at 0.2

  • 08:57 PM
    WRwryqas
    $2.57

    Bought 3.172836 Carlos Alcaraz for US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz at 0.81

  • 08:49 PM
    $5.00

    Bought 6.172836 Carlos Alcaraz for US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz at 0.81

  • 08:29 PM
    0O0ooogway
    $12.35

    Sold 19.92 Safiullin for Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5) at 0.62

  • 08:01 PM
    POPolo44
    $100.00

    Bought 123.456789 Carlos Alcaraz for US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz at 0.81

  • 07:58 PM
    DVdv-pm
    $212.00

    Bought 265 Carlos Alcaraz for US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz at 0.8

  • 07:35 PM
    DEdentleightadman
    $1.00

    Bought 2.5 Under 3.5 for Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 3.5 at 0.4

  • 07:20 PM
    SWSweetAssKasikorn
    $15.30

    Bought 19.13 Carlos Alcaraz for US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz at 0.8

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

FA1
fastball67
Event PnL
+$24.57
Volume
$18,057.95
Positions
Alcaraz
BA2
bands1
Event PnL
+$75.69
Volume
$16,004.87
Positions
SafiullinRoman Safiullin
GO3
Gourmet1
Event PnL
+$14.49
Volume
$15,757.70
Positions
Roman Safiullin
VE4
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
+$114.11
Volume
$5,677.64
Positions
Carlos AlcarazSafiullinAlcaraz+1
HU5
hulinali
Event PnL
-$124.04
Volume
$4,270.00
Positions
Carlos Alcaraz
NM6
NM-P
Event PnL
-$28.13
Volume
$3,534.25
Positions
Carlos Alcaraz
A07
0xa0f2…1848
Event PnL
-$1.93
Volume
$2,798.00
Positions
Carlos Alcaraz
SE8
Selyvan55
Event PnL
-$68.10
Volume
$2,724.00
Positions
Carlos Alcaraz

常見問題

目前市場對「US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 以 6,550% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5(6,500%),以及 US Open ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5(6,050%)。該市場總成交量已達 $67K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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