
Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek
核心摘要
根据「Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek 以压倒性的 9,250% 获胜概率主导市场;Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 Winner 以 9,050% 位居第二,Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 Winner 以 8,150% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $78.5K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek (9,250%):Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,250¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $98.7K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 Winner (9,050%):作为最可行的替代选项,Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 Winner 保持着 9,050% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,050¢。
- Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 Winner (8,150%):以 8,150% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 Winner 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set Handicap +/-1.5 (7,550%)、Completed Match (5,000%),以及 Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 O/U 8.5 (5,000%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 O/U 8.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek | 9250.0% | $98.7K | 9250¢ | -9150¢ |
| 2 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 Winner | 9050.0% | $714 | 9050¢ | -8950¢ |
| 3 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 Winner | 8150.0% | $46 | 8150¢ | -8050¢ |
| 4 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 7550.0% | $5.0K | 7550¢ | -7450¢ |
| 5 | Completed Match | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 6 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 5000.0% | $24 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 7 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 8 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 10 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Match O/U 22.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 11 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 12 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | $25 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 13 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Match O/U 23.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 14 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Match O/U 21.5 | 2650.0% | $45 | 2650¢ | -2550¢ |
| 15 | Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 2150.0% | $687 | 2150¢ | -2050¢ |
裁决规则
This market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Sara Bejlek in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 8:30PM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Sara Bejlek.
This market will resolve to 'Sara Bejlek' if Sara Bejlek advances against Aryna Sabalenka.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Aug 19, 2026
- 09:12 PM0X0x48cFB6dB98fEfEACc6A3A030a1865de0b6adC7dF-1764056399219$14.00
Bought 100 Sara Bejlek for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.14
- 09:10 PMSTStefnc$20.00
Bought 22.9885 Aryna Sabalenka for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.87
- 08:55 PM——$69.21
Bought 79.551723 Aryna Sabalenka for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.87
- 08:21 PM——$3.00
Bought 21.42857 Sara Bejlek for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.14
- 08:16 PMDDDDDSKUN$174.00
Bought 200 Aryna Sabalenka for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.87
- 07:53 PM0X0x848763d8DdAE107f132bFC10524fFb85C4577f21-1778415814813$1.00
Bought 1.149423 Aryna Sabalenka for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.87
- 07:46 PMVAvasand$52.20
Bought 60 Aryna Sabalenka for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.87
- 07:44 PMLELeecoTradeHappy$100.00
Bought 114.942523 Aryna Sabalenka for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.87
- 07:43 PMLELeecoTradeHappy$100.00
Bought 114.942523 Aryna Sabalenka for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.87
- 07:40 PM0X0x66f68D28Eee434d97B3f464dB4B555867f5C5bF2-1731676588106$5.13
Bought 5.896546 Aryna Sabalenka for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.87
- 07:30 PM0X0x546a5166295433dddA571cdE5d077Fc46abD1988-1770842732162$8.20
Bought 10.25 Sabalenka for Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Bejlek at 0.8
- 07:30 PMMOmountion$4.20
Bought 30 Sara Bejlek for Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek at 0.14
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek 以 9,250% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 Winner(9,050%),以及 Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 Winner(8,150%)。该市场总成交量已达 $78.5K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
