
WTA 1000 Toronto: Winner
核心摘要
根据「WTA 1000 Toronto: Winner」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Moyuka Uchijima 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场;Panna Udvardy 以 5,000% 位居第二,Renata Zarazua 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $900,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Moyuka Uchijima (5,000%):Moyuka Uchijima 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $10 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Panna Udvardy (5,000%):作为最可行的替代选项,Panna Udvardy 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
- Renata Zarazua (5,000%):以 5,000% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Renata Zarazua 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Shuai Zhang (5,000%)、Carol Zhao (5,000%),以及 Jessica Pegula (2,600%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Iga Swiatek 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moyuka Uchijima | 5000.0% | $10 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | Panna Udvardy | 5000.0% | $10 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 3 | Renata Zarazua | 5000.0% | $10 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 4 | Shuai Zhang | 5000.0% | $10 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 5 | Carol Zhao | 5000.0% | $10 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 6 | Jessica Pegula | 2600.0% | $10 | 2600¢ | -2500¢ |
| 7 | Iga Swiatek | 2600.0% | $10 | 2600¢ | -2500¢ |
| 8 | Naomi Osaka | 2600.0% | $10 | 2600¢ | -2500¢ |
| 9 | Sorana Cirstea | 2500.0% | — | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 11 | Marie Bouzkova | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 12 | Anastasia Potapova | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 13 | Ann Li | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 14 | Donna Vekic | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 15 | Sara Bejlek | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 16 | Anna Bondar | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 17 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 18 | Kayla Cross | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 19 | Kayla Day | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 20 | Magdalena Frech | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 21 | Talia Gibson | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 22 | Viktorija Golubic | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 23 | Leolia Jeanjean | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 24 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 25 | Maya Joint | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 26 | Emerson Jones | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 27 | Daria Kasatkina | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 28 | McCartney Kessler | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 29 | Alina Korneeva | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 30 | Tamara Korpatsch | 2500.0% | — | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 31 | Magda Linette | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 32 | Tatjana Maria | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 33 | Rebecca Marino | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 34 | Caty McNally | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 35 | Alycia Parks | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 36 | Kamilla Rakhimova | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 37 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 38 | Antonia Ruzic | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 39 | Katherine Sebov | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 40 | Solana Sierra | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 41 | Zeynep Sonmez | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 42 | Rebecca Sramkova | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 43 | Yuliia Starodubtseva | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 44 | Lanlana Tararudee | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 45 | Tereza Valentova | 2500.0% | $10 | 2500¢ | -2400¢ |
| 46 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2100.0% | $10 | 2100¢ | -2000¢ |
| 47 | Coco Gauff | 1700.0% | $10 | 1700¢ | -1600¢ |
| 48 | Mirra Andreeva | 1700.0% | $10 | 1700¢ | -1600¢ |
| 49 | Linda Noskova | 1600.0% | $10 | 1600¢ | -1500¢ |
| 50 | Amanda Anisimova | 1600.0% | $10 | 1600¢ | -1500¢ |
| 51 | Elina Svitolina | 1450.0% | $10 | 1450¢ | -1350¢ |
| 52 | Elena Rybakina | 1400.0% | $10 | 1400¢ | -1300¢ |
| 53 | Marta Kostyuk | 1350.0% | $10 | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
| 54 | Madison Keys | 1350.0% | $10 | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
| 55 | Belinda Bencic | 1300.0% | $10 | 1300¢ | -1200¢ |
| 56 | Iva Jovic | 1300.0% | $10 | 1300¢ | -1200¢ |
| 57 | Diana Shnaider | 1300.0% | $10 | 1300¢ | -1200¢ |
| 58 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1300.0% | $10 | 1300¢ | -1200¢ |
| 59 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1300.0% | $10 | 1300¢ | -1200¢ |
| 60 | Alexandra Eala | 1300.0% | $10 | 1300¢ | -1200¢ |
| 61 | Maja Chwalinska | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 62 | Elise Mertens | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 63 | Emma Navarro | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 64 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 65 | Clara Tauson | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 66 | Maria Sakkari | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 67 | Leylah Fernandez | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 68 | Katerina Siniakova | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 69 | Bianca Andreescu | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 70 | Nikola Bartunkova | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 71 | Lois Boisson | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 72 | Eva Lys | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 73 | Camila Osorio | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 74 | Karolina Pliskova | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 75 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 76 | Sloane Stephens | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 77 | Janice Tjen | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 78 | Taylor Townsend | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 79 | Xinyu Wang | 1250.0% | $10 | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 80 | Anna Blinkova | 1000.0% | $10 | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 81 | Yulia Putintseva | 1000.0% | $10 | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 82 | Peyton Stearns | 1000.0% | $10 | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 83 | Katie Boulter | 145.0% | $10 | 145¢ | -45¢ |
| 84 | Anhelina Kalinina | 145.0% | $20 | 145¢ | -45¢ |
| 85 | Polina Kudermetova | 145.0% | $20 | 145¢ | -45¢ |
| 86 | Oleksandra Oliynykova | 145.0% | $20 | 145¢ | -45¢ |
| 87 | Diane Parry | 145.0% | $20 | 145¢ | -45¢ |
| 88 | Cadence Brace | 5.0% | $10 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 89 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 5.0% | $10 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the winner of the National Bank Open presented by Rogers (WTA 1000 Toronto 2026), currently scheduled for August 1 – August 13, 2026.
If this tournament is postponed after August 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, the WTA (wtatennis.com) or National Bank Open (nationalbankopen.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常见问题
当前市场对「WTA 1000 Toronto: Winner」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Moyuka Uchijima 以 5,000% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Panna Udvardy(5,000%),以及 Renata Zarazua(5,000%)。该市场总成交量已达 $900,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
