
Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury
核心摘要
根据「Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury 以压倒性的 7,550% 获胜概率主导市场;Spread -5.5 以 5,850% 位居第二,Spread -6.5 以 5,550% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $55K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury (7,550%):Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,550¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $27.9K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Spread -5.5 (5,850%):作为最可行的替代选项,Spread -5.5 保持着 5,850% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,850¢。
- Spread -6.5 (5,550%):以 5,550% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Spread -6.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 O/U 175.5 (5,450%)、O/U 176.5 (5,350%),以及 Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 (5,200%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury | 7550.0% | $27.9K | 7550¢ | -7450¢ |
| 2 | Spread -5.5 | 5850.0% | $19.3K | 5850¢ | -5750¢ |
| 3 | Spread -6.5 | 5550.0% | $55 | 5550¢ | -5450¢ |
| 4 | O/U 175.5 | 5450.0% | $1.5K | 5450¢ | -5350¢ |
| 5 | O/U 176.5 | 5350.0% | $4.9K | 5350¢ | -5250¢ |
| 6 | Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 5200.0% | — | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 7 | Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 5200.0% | — | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 8 | Spread -7.5 | 5150.0% | $4.7K | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 9 | Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 18.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 10 | Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 11 | Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 12 | Angel Reese: Points O/U 15.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 13 | Angel Reese: Points O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 14 | Naz Hillmon: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 15 | Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 16 | Alyssa Thomas: Points O/U 14.5 | 4850.0% | — | 4850¢ | -4750¢ |
| 17 | Allisha Gray: Assists O/U 2.5 | 4850.0% | $21 | 4850¢ | -4750¢ |
| 18 | Jordin Canada: Points O/U 10.5 | 4800.0% | — | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 19 | Jordin Canada: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 4600.0% | — | 4600¢ | -4500¢ |
| 20 | Allisha Gray: Points O/U 19.5 | 4450.0% | — | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 21 | Alyssa Thomas: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4450.0% | — | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 22 | Naz Hillmon: Points O/U 9.5 | 4150.0% | $5 | 4150¢ | -4050¢ |
| 23 | Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 4100.0% | — | 4100¢ | -4000¢ |
| 24 | Naz Hillmon: Points O/U 8.5 | 3350.0% | — | 3350¢ | -3250¢ |
| 25 | Angel Reese: Assists O/U 2.5 | 3250.0% | — | 3250¢ | -3150¢ |
| 26 | Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 2350.0% | — | 2350¢ | -2250¢ |
| 27 | Alyssa Thomas: Assists O/U 8.5 | 2250.0% | — | 2250¢ | -2150¢ |
| 28 | Angel Reese: Assists O/U 3.5 | 2200.0% | — | 2200¢ | -2100¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 22 at 10:00PM ET:
If the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to "Atlanta Dream".
If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Aug 22, 2026
- 07:49 PM3B3bass$30.04
Bought 40.048532 Atlanta Dream for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.75
- 07:37 PMGPGPerdomo$1.00
Bought 1.35135 Atlanta Dream for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.74
- 07:02 PMQWqwe6897$22.20
Bought 30 Atlanta Dream for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.74
- 06:01 PM0X0x7e092E426EE75607D1fD5a6eD1d9D387fF0dbcc0-1764928343859$3.70
Bought 5 Atlanta Dream for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.74
- 05:22 PMDUDummySane$1.00
Bought 3.703702 Phoenix Mercury for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.27
- 04:27 PMFUFuzzydog$5.00
Bought 18.518517 Phoenix Mercury for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.27
- 04:25 PMSUsuntori$19.04
Bought 25.729726 Atlanta Dream for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.74
- 04:11 PMSUsunnyhussain96$1,841.06
Bought 2522 Atlanta Dream for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.73
- 04:05 PMDAdas1983$2.00
Bought 7.142856 Phoenix Mercury for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.28
- 03:40 PMSWSweatypalms447$0.26
Sold 0.36 Atlanta Dream for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.72
- 03:40 PMSWSweatypalms447$1.00
Bought 1.369862 Atlanta Dream for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.73
- 03:08 PMSUsunnyhussain96$36.00
Bought 50 Atlanta Dream for Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury at 0.72
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury 以 7,550% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Spread -5.5(5,850%),以及 Spread -6.5(5,550%)。该市场总成交量已达 $55K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
