Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (July 27 - August 1)

根据「Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (July 27 - August 1)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，July 31 以压倒性的 5,800% 获胜概率主导市场；August 1 以 5,450% 位居第二，July 28 以 5,150% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $2K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• July 31 (5,800%)：July 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,800¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• August 1 (5,450%)：作为最可行的替代选项，August 1 保持着 5,450% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,450¢。
• July 28 (5,150%)：以 5,150% 的概率位列第三，市场对 July 28 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 July 29 (4,650%)、July 30 (3,800%)，以及 July 27 (1,150%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 July 29 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the White House Press Office calls a full lid for the specified date by 6:30 PM ET on that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).