Trump approval Up or Down this week?

根据「Trump approval Up or Down this week?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Down 以压倒性的 5,200% 获胜概率主导市场；Up 以 4,800% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $75，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Down (5,200%)：Down 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,200¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Up (4,800%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Up 保持着 4,800% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,800¢。

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 31, 2026, than on July 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 24, 2026, than on July 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.

The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.

If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.