Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

根据「Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Gavin Newsom 以压倒性的 4,550% 获胜概率主导市场；Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 以 4,550% 位居第二，Jon Ossoff 以 4,550% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Gavin Newsom (4,550%)：Gavin Newsom 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,550¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (4,550%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 保持着 4,550% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,550¢。
• Jon Ossoff (4,550%)：以 4,550% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Jon Ossoff 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Kamala Harris (4,550%)、Josh Shapiro (4,550%)，以及 Pete Buttigieg (4,550%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Jon Stewart 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.