Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

根据「Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，July 31 以压倒性的 4,450% 获胜概率主导市场；September 30 以 4,450% 位居第二，December 31 以 4,450% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• July 31 (4,450%)：July 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,450¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• September 30 (4,450%)：作为最可行的替代选项，September 30 保持着 4,450% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,450¢。
• December 31 (4,450%)：以 4,450% 的概率位列第三，市场对 December 31 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.