Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

根据「Which banks will fail by end of 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，BNP Paribas 以压倒性的 2.9% 获胜概率主导市场；Scotiabank 以 2.8% 位居第二，US Bank 以 2.8% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $53.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• BNP Paribas (2.9%)：BNP Paribas 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 3¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $209 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Scotiabank (2.8%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Scotiabank 保持着 2.8% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3¢。
• US Bank (2.8%)：以 2.8% 的概率位列第三，市场对 US Bank 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 91.6%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Truist (2.7%)、RBC (2.6%)，以及 Bank of America (2.5%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 KeyBank 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:

- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.

- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.

- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.

- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.

- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.

If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Truist 当前交易价为 2.7%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 1%，形成 -1.7% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 KeyBank 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 2.4% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 5.2%——形成可观的 +2.8% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Scotiabank（EV 差：+2.7%）以及 UBS（EV 差：+1.7%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。