What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?

根据「What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Winchester Model 1894 以压倒性的 4,250% 获胜概率主导市场；Winchester Model 1873 以 4,250% 位居第二，Colt Peacemaker 以 4,250% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Winchester Model 1894 (4,250%)：Winchester Model 1894 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,250¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Winchester Model 1873 (4,250%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Winchester Model 1873 保持着 4,250% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,250¢。
• Colt Peacemaker (4,250%)：以 4,250% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Colt Peacemaker 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 M1 Garand (4,250%)、Colt M1911 (4,250%)，以及 Remington Model 700 (4,250%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 M1 Garand 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Idaho Official State Gun Question in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The named options will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more options are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the options. This market will resolve to the option that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).