What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
核心摘要
根据「What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Enola Holmes 3 以压倒性的 8,850% 获胜概率主导市场；Little Brother 以 900% 位居第二，Voicemails for Isabelle 以 190% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $57.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Enola Holmes 3 (8,850%)：Enola Holmes 3 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,850¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $11.9K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Little Brother (900%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Little Brother 保持着 900% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 900¢。
- Voicemails for Isabelle (190%)：以 190% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Voicemails for Isabelle 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 GOAT (5%)、Maternal Instinct (5%)，以及 KPop Demon Hunters (5%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Spider-Man: Homecoming 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enola Holmes 3 | 8850.0% | $11.9K | 8850¢ | -8750¢ |
| 2 | Little Brother | 900.0% | $25.8K | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 3 | Voicemails for Isabelle | 190.0% | $16.0K | 190¢ | -90¢ |
| 4 | GOAT | 5.0% | $625 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 5 | Maternal Instinct | 5.0% | $591 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 6 | KPop Demon Hunters | 5.0% | $552 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 7 | Spider-Man: Homecoming | 5.0% | $564 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 8 | Gone Girl | 5.0% | $251 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 9 | The Choral | 5.0% | $214 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 10 | Talk to Me | 5.0% | $1.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).
This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie.
The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.
If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 3, 2026
- 08:23 AMBJbjprolo$0.13
Sold 1.18 Yes for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.11
- 08:15 AM0X0x90Bf2dbB1ab3b3C1bDd76D73848AFCb19b5799EB-1757018988089$14.24
Bought 16 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.89
- 08:13 AM0X0x90Bf2dbB1ab3b3C1bDd76D73848AFCb19b5799EB-1757018988089$38.28
Bought 44 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.87
- 07:49 AMTRtrinads-ai$9.30
Sold 66.42 Yes for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.14
- 07:48 AMVIVictor-Rainbow-Polymarket$58.25
Sold 72.81 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.8
- 07:48 AMBEBeubeu$40.00
Sold 50 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.8
- 07:48 AMAJAJSV$37.75
Bought 47.19 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.8
- 07:48 AMLIlihood91211$1.69
Sold 2.09 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.81
- 07:48 AMLIlihood91211$31.90
Sold 38.9 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.82
- 07:48 AMMAmacrosteaks$5.22
Sold 29 Yes for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.18
- 07:47 AMB8B839core$4.10
Sold 5 No for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.82
- 07:41 AM——$1.92
Bought 7.11111 Yes for Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 0.27
常见问题
当前市场对「What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Enola Holmes 3 以 8,850% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Little Brother（900%），以及 Voicemails for Isabelle（190%）。该市场总成交量已达 $57.7K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。