What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (August 7)

根据「What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (August 7)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times 以压倒性的 9,500% 获胜概率主导市场；Software 以 9,350% 位居第二，IPO 以 9,100% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times (9,500%)：Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,500¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $31 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Software (9,350%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Software 保持着 9,350% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,350¢。
• IPO (9,100%)：以 9,100% 的概率位列第三，市场对 IPO 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Anthropic 5+ times (8,950%)、AI 50+ times (8,600%)，以及 SpaceX 3+ times (7,900%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Red 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://allin.com/episodes)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the next episode of the All-In Podcast added to the official YouTube playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLn5MTSAqaf8peDZQ57QkJBzewJU1aUokl. Specials or other videos posted on the YouTube channel but not included on the All-In Podcast playlist will not be considered.

If no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf