What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

$377.7K Vol
2026年9月1日
Active
概率趋势
↓ 62,500 96.0%
↑ 65,000 69.5%
↓ 60,000 63.5%
↓ 57,500 39.5%
↑ 67,500 37.5%

核心摘要

根据「What price will Bitcoin hit in August?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，↑ 65,000 以压倒性的 6,950% 获胜概率主导市场；↓ 60,000 以 6,300% 位居第二，↓ 57,500 以 3,950% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $377.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • ↑ 65,000 (6,950%)：↑ 65,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,950¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $9.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • ↓ 60,000 (6,300%)：作为最可行的替代选项，↓ 60,000 保持着 6,300% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 6,300¢。
  • ↓ 57,500 (3,950%)：以 3,950% 的概率位列第三，市场对 ↓ 57,500 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 ↑ 67,500 (3,750%)、↑ 70,000 (2,350%)，以及 ↓ 55,000 (2,150%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 ↓ 52,500 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1↑ 65,0006950.0%$9.3K6950¢-6850¢
2↓ 60,0006300.0%$12.9K6300¢-6200¢
3↓ 57,5003950.0%$13.9K3950¢-3850¢
4↑ 67,5003750.0%$18.9K3750¢-3650¢
5↑ 70,0002350.0%$11.3K2350¢-2250¢
6↓ 55,0002150.0%$37.2K2150¢-2050¢
7↓ 52,5001250.0%$38.6K1250¢-1150¢
8↑ 72,5001050.0%$11.7K1050¢-950¢
9↓ 50,000755.0%$42.3K755¢-655¢
10↑ 75,000455.0%$17.0K455¢-355¢
11↓ 47,500320.0%$13.3K320¢-220¢
12↓ 45,000205.0%$24.7K205¢-105¢
13↑ 77,500195.0%$3.1K195¢-95¢
14↓ 42,500135.0%$18.3K135¢-35¢
15↑ 80,000125.0%$2.5K125¢-25¢
16↑ 82,500115.0%$12.3K115¢-15¢
17↓ 40,000105.0%$47.6K105¢-5¢
18↑ 85,00080.0%$10.7K80¢20¢
19↑ 100,00025.0%$34.9K25¢75¢

裁决规则

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Aug 1, 2026

  • 08:35 PM
    0X0xa78342dA292Ad314cC972863818F414723330a48-1776782510398
    $3.00

    Bought 5 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? at 0.6

  • 08:35 PM
    0X0xa78342dA292Ad314cC972863818F414723330a48-1776782510398
    $6.60

    Bought 11 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? at 0.6

  • 08:35 PM
    0X0xa78342dA292Ad314cC972863818F414723330a48-1776782510398
    $37.17

    Bought 61.95 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? at 0.6

  • 08:35 PM
    3I3iron
    $575.84

    Bought 959.733332 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? at 0.6

  • 08:32 PM
    0X0xc25074089e41E0C579770242429d7f0c3FFF4Faf-1777565830339
    $50.00

    Bought 131.578946 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? at 0.38

  • 08:31 PM
    SUsuntori
    $93.45

    Bought 245.921051 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? at 0.38

  • 08:30 PM
    BEberaguess
    $246.22

    Bought 253.84 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August? at 0.97

  • 08:30 PM
    DAdagua
    $298.52

    Bought 728.09 Yes for Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? at 0.41

  • 08:30 PM
    SUsuntori
    $93.15

    Bought 251.768683 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? at 0.37

  • 08:29 PM
    SUsuntori
    $94.02

    Bought 247.417104 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? at 0.38

  • 08:29 PM
    SUsuntori
    $9.34

    Bought 26.685713 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? at 0.35

  • 08:28 PM
    BLblueciferous
    $1.75

    Bought 5 No for Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? at 0.35

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

8A1
0x8a15…4f9f
Event PnL
-$279.76
Volume
$35,392.40
Positions
YesYesYes
HQ2
hqb.prediction
Event PnL
-$48.94
Volume
$32,308.84
Positions
YesYesYes+6
FL3
flawfence
Event PnL
+$37.21
Volume
$27,766.18
Positions
NoNoNo
LO4
lovedudley
Event PnL
+$81.59
Volume
$25,037.91
Positions
NoNo
BO5
boyau
Event PnL
-$52.80
Volume
$23,041.19
Positions
YesYesYes+2
DO6
DOWNbet
Event PnL
+$162.62
Volume
$22,043.59
Positions
NoNoNo
BB7
bbpro1
Event PnL
+$22.86
Volume
$20,875.17
Positions
YesYesYes+1
RI8
Rin2x
Event PnL
+$9.72
Volume
$19,888.29
Positions
NoNoNo+7

常见问题

当前市场对「What price will Bitcoin hit in August?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，↑ 65,000 以 6,950% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 ↓ 60,000（6,300%），以及 ↓ 57,500（3,950%）。该市场总成交量已达 $377.7K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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