S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?

根据「S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Up 以压倒性的 84% 获胜概率主导市场；Down 以 16% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $69K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Up (84%)：Up 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 84¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Down (16%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Down 保持着 16% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 16¢。

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".

US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks

EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea

ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Up 当前交易价为 84%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 81%，形成 -3% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Down 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 16% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 19%——形成可观的 +3% EV 差。