S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 13?

根据「S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 13?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Up 以压倒性的 9,925% 获胜概率主导市场；Down 以 75% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $57.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Up (9,925%)：Up 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,925¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Down (75%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Down 保持着 75% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 75¢。

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, August 13, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, August 13, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".

US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks

EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea

ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia