Next Claude Opus released by...?

根据「Next Claude Opus released by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 8,850% 获胜概率主导市场；October 31 以 6,700% 位居第二，August 31 以 1,050% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31 (8,850%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,850¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $393 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• October 31 (6,700%)：作为最可行的替代选项，October 31 保持着 6,700% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 6,700¢。
• August 31 (1,050%)：以 1,050% 的概率位列第三，市场对 August 31 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.