Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?

根据「Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，July 31 以压倒性的 600% 获胜概率主导市场；July 24 以 400% 位居第二，July 17 以 350% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $20，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• July 31 (600%)：July 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 600¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $20 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• July 24 (400%)：作为最可行的替代选项，July 24 保持着 400% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 400¢。
• July 17 (350%)：以 350% 的概率位列第三，市场对 July 17 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mykhailo Fedorov is reinstated as Ukraine’s Minister of Defense by the listed date at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Fedorov will be considered reinstated if he is either i) officially assigned to temporarily perform the minister’s duties or ii) formally nominated for appointment by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Verkhovna Rada.

A temporary reinstatement will be considered to have occurred when the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine officially and definitively announces that Mykhailo Fedorov has been assigned to temporarily perform the duties of the Minister of Defense. A formal nomination will be considered to have occurred upon the submission of Mykhailo Fedorov’s nomination to the Verkhovna Rada.

A public statement, media report, expression of intent, or informal announcement will not qualify, unless it constitutes an official and definitive announcement by the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers assigning Fedorov to perform the minister’s duties. Fedorov does not need to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada, take the oath of office, or assume the position on a permanent basis to qualify.

Whether any individual other than Mykhailo Fedorov is nominated, temporarily assigned, or appointed Minister of Defense, within the market timeframe, will not be considered. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information and records from the President of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, and the Verkhovna Rada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.