St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs

$98.1K Vol
2026年7月11日
Active
概率趋势
Chicago Cubs 53.5%
St. Louis Cardinals 46.5%

核心摘要

根据「St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 以压倒性的 8,200% 获胜概率主导市场;1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 以 7,400% 位居第二,1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 以 6,150% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $98.1K,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 (8,200%):1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,200¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $29 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 (7,400%):作为最可行的替代选项,1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 保持着 7,400% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 7,400¢。
  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 (6,150%):以 6,150% 的概率位列第三,市场对 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 NRFI (5,700%)、O/U 10.5 (5,050%),以及 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 (4,950%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
11st 5 Innings O/U 2.58200.0%$298200¢-8100¢
21st 5 Innings O/U 3.57400.0%7400¢-7300¢
31st 5 Innings O/U 4.56150.0%6150¢-6050¢
4NRFI5700.0%$1.2K5700¢-5600¢
5O/U 10.55050.0%$4625050¢-4950¢
61st 5 Innings O/U 5.54950.0%4950¢-4850¢
7St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs4650.0%$96.3K4650¢-4550¢
8Spread -1.54050.0%$2284050¢-3950¢
91st 5 Innings O/U 6.53900.0%$73900¢-3800¢
10Spread -1.53650.0%$2283650¢-3550¢
111st 5 Innings Spread -1.53400.0%3400¢-3300¢
121st 5 Innings Spread -1.52900.0%2900¢-2800¢
131st 5 Innings Spread -2.52400.0%2400¢-2300¢
141st 5 Innings Spread -2.52000.0%2000¢-1900¢
15Extra Innings850.0%850¢-750¢

裁决规则

In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for July 3 at 4:05PM ET:

This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game.

This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 3, 2026

  • 08:28 AM
    OLOlma
    $2.55

    Bought 5 Under for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 at 0.51

  • 08:28 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $9.03

    Bought 23.16 Chicago Cubs for Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) at 0.39

  • 08:22 AM
    $2.00

    Bought 3.921567 Under for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 at 0.51

  • 08:22 AM
    $2.00

    Bought 4 Over for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 at 0.5

  • 08:20 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $9.03

    Bought 23.16 Chicago Cubs for Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) at 0.39

  • 08:15 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $13.35

    Bought 34.24 Chicago Cubs for Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) at 0.39

  • 08:12 AM
    SOSocenosen
    $1.17

    Bought 1.799847 Under for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 at 0.65

  • 08:05 AM
    GOGoticaria3
    $1.23

    Bought 1.892305 Under for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 at 0.65

  • 08:05 AM
    ROrohail2002
    $15.00

    Bought 27.777776 Chicago Cubs for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.54

  • 08:00 AM
    NInidegdd
    $1.00

    Bought 2.127658 St. Louis Cardinals for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.47

  • 07:58 AM
    MIMidnightc0w
    $1.15

    Bought 1.769228 Under for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 at 0.65

  • 07:52 AM
    0X0x8C996043E75D3cCd7A59a7072Ef832AC1A67ebdc-1779774789228
    $9.87

    Bought 21 St. Louis Cardinals for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs at 0.47

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

3D1
0x3DFb…8185
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$16,749.39
Positions
St. Louis Cardinals
NI2
NiFengFanPan
Event PnL
+$373.91
Volume
$14,955.77
Positions
Chicago Cubs
9F3
0x9f15…bdb3
Event PnL
+$17.26
Volume
$1,150.76
Positions
Chicago Cubs
PU4
purplegatto
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$810.07
Positions
Chicago Cubs
C25
0xc249…2835
Event PnL
+$0.02
Volume
$602.00
Positions
Chicago Cubs
LA6
lasttests
Event PnL
-$0.94
Volume
$475.34
Positions
Chicago Cubs
SC7
scottvan2
Event PnL
-$6.75
Volume
$450.00
Positions
St. Louis Cardinals
A38
0xA3c2…3278
Event PnL
+$0.42
Volume
$234.00
Positions
St. Louis Cardinals

常见问题

当前市场对「St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 以 8,200% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5(7,400%),以及 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5(6,150%)。该市场总成交量已达 $98.1K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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