MLB: Player to be Traded by 2026 Trade Deadline?

$46.1K Vol
2026年8月4日
Active
概率趋势
Tarik Skubal 100.0%
Freddy Peralta 100.0%
Kevin Gausman 96.1%
Luis Arraez 93.1%
Robbie Ray 87.1%

核心摘要

根据「MLB: Player to be Traded by 2026 Trade Deadline?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Kevin Gausman 以压倒性的 9,610% 获胜概率主导市场；Luis Arraez 以 9,315% 位居第二，Robbie Ray 以 8,580% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $46.1K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Kevin Gausman (9,610%)：Kevin Gausman 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,610¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $680 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Luis Arraez (9,315%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Luis Arraez 保持着 9,315% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,315¢。
  • Robbie Ray (8,580%)：以 8,580% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Robbie Ray 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 Casey Mize (6,850%)、José Soriano (5,250%)，以及 Adrian Morejon (5,000%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Reid Detmers 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Kevin Gausman9610.0%$6809610¢-9510¢
2Luis Arraez9315.0%$6829315¢-9215¢
3Robbie Ray8580.0%$1.1K8580¢-8480¢
4Casey Mize6850.0%$2.1K6850¢-6750¢
5José Soriano5250.0%$2.1K5250¢-5150¢
6Adrian Morejon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
7Reid Detmers4750.0%$204750¢-4650¢
8Ryan Jeffers3250.0%$1253250¢-3150¢
9Zach Neto2600.0%$8362600¢-2500¢
10Mason Miller810.0%$1.8K810¢-710¢
11Shea Langeliers710.0%$10.2K710¢-610¢
12CJ Abrams650.0%$386650¢-550¢
13Jeremy Pena520.0%$2.7K520¢-420¢
14Jarren Duran355.0%$660355¢-255¢
15Francisco Lindor245.0%$2.5K245¢-145¢
16Byron Buxton195.0%$4.2K195¢-95¢
17Juan Soto175.0%$277175¢-75¢
18Jung Hoo Lee155.0%$6.0K155¢-55¢
19Joe Ryan105.0%$115105¢-5¢
20Mike Trout55.0%$1.6K55¢45¢
21Josh Hader15.0%$3.7K15¢85¢
22Aroldis Chapman5.0%$6235¢95¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Major League Baseball player is traded by August 3, 2026, 9:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the listed player is released, retires, not on the active roster for any MLB team or is not under contract with any MLB team by August 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Aug 2, 2026

  • 06:51 PM
    GCgcjames
    $57.66

    Sold 62 No for Will Shea Langeliers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.93

  • 06:41 PM
    ROrogermal
    $0.38

    Sold 19.2 Yes for Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.02

  • 06:41 PM
    ROrogermal
    $3.74

    Sold 22 Yes for Will Mason Miller be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.17

  • 06:41 PM
    ROrogermal
    $4.37

    Sold 23 No for Will Casey Mize be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.19

  • 05:51 PM
    IMimumoccupancy
    $420.41

    Bought 424.66 Yes for Will Freddy Peralta be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.99

  • 05:50 PM
    IMimumoccupancy
    $59.40

    Bought 60 Yes for Will Freddy Peralta be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.99

  • 05:50 PM
    IMimumoccupancy
    $105.83

    Bought 107.99 Yes for Will Freddy Peralta be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.98

  • 05:50 PM
    ATatanvardo
    $16.92

    Sold 19.23 No for Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.88

  • 04:28 PM
    JAjackylove
    $43.50

    Bought 50 No for Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.87

  • 03:51 PM
    GAgavinfunda
    $57.66

    Sold 62 No for Will Shea Langeliers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.93

  • 03:26 PM
    RUrubl
    $17.67

    Sold 19 No for Will Shea Langeliers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.93

  • 02:50 PM
    JAjackylove
    $82.00

    Bought 100 No for Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline? at 0.82

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

SE1
Seutervoinen
Event PnL
+$91.76
Volume
$2,955.97
Positions
NoNoNo+2
CH2
ChuDebbieSharp
Event PnL
+$167.73
Volume
$1,377.27
Positions
YesNoYes+5
AM3
AMAM13
Event PnL
-$34.75
Volume
$1,174.07
Positions
NoNoYes+1
DR4
Dr.PNL
Event PnL
-$32.48
Volume
$1,062.49
Positions
NoYesYes+7
DU5
DuneMentat
Event PnL
+$181.19
Volume
$984.01
Positions
NoNoNo+1
LS6
LS-ship
Event PnL
-$95.83
Volume
$929.32
Positions
YesYesYes+5
RA7
RadioFreeZerg
Event PnL
+$3.11
Volume
$892.80
Positions
NoNoNo+11
JA8
jackylove
Event PnL
+$74.52
Volume
$871.86
Positions
NoNo

常见问题

当前市场对「MLB: Player to be Traded by 2026 Trade Deadline?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Kevin Gausman 以 9,610% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Luis Arraez（9,315%），以及 Robbie Ray（8,580%）。该市场总成交量已达 $46.1K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

免费开始