Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?

根据「Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，26-29 以压倒性的 4,300% 获胜概率主导市场；<18 以 2,100% 位居第二，22-25 以 2,100% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $176，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 26-29 (4,300%)：26-29 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,300¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $96 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• <18 (2,100%)：作为最可行的替代选项，<18 保持着 2,100% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,100¢。
• 22-25 (2,100%)：以 2,100% 的概率位列第三，市场对 22-25 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 18-21 (1,950%)、34+ (1,600%)，以及 30-33 (1,450%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 18-21 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.

This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.

If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).