Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

根据「Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Republican 12%+ 以压倒性的 4,400% 获胜概率主导市场；Democrat 12%+ 以 4,250% 位居第二，Republican 9-12% 以 1,850% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Republican 12%+ (4,400%)：Republican 12%+ 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,400¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Democrat 12%+ (4,250%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Democrat 12%+ 保持着 4,250% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,250¢。
• Republican 9-12% (1,850%)：以 1,850% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Republican 9-12% 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Republican 6-9% (1,850%)、Republican 3-6% (1,850%)，以及 Republican 0-3% (1,850%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Democrat 0-3% 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The 2026 first round of the Maine Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Maine Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.